Casino bonuses, priced by expected value
Every operator publishes a wagering multiplier. We work out what it actually costs you - how much you must bet, the chance of running out first, and what you end up with - from each operator’s own terms.How this is calculated
- Offers tracked
- 8
- With a figure
- 6
- Lose you money
- 2
- Deposit bonus spread
- $574
Our pick
Duel - 50% instant rakeback, no bonus at allNo wagering requirement · returns ~$175 per $10,000 stakedBut why?
Our model was built to price welcome bonuses, and it kept reaching the same verdict: the requirement is the product. The operator that runs no bonus therefore wins by not competing. That is an uncomfortable conclusion for a bonus comparison site to publish, so we are publishing it.
- No wagering requirement
- Every graded row below carries a cost because there is turnover to survive. This offer has none, so there is no requirement to fail and no bonus to forfeit.
- Rakeback, not bonus credit
- A share of the house edge is returned on every bet and is withdrawable immediately, rather than released as balance that has to be cleared first.
- Zero-edge limits published
- The house games run at no edge up to a stated daily allowance, after which a scaling edge applies. The limits are disclosed rather than buried.
Rakeback compared, like for like
Duel returns ~12.5× what Stake does| Operator | Quoted | Of turnover | Per $10k |
|---|---|---|---|
| Duel | 50% | ~1.75% | ~$175 |
| Gamdom | 15% | ~0.60% | ~$60 |
| Stake | 3.5% | ~0.14% | ~$14 |
All quote rakeback as a share of house edge, so the quoted percentages are not comparable on their own. Converted against each operator’s third-party slot RTP, they are. Figures are approximate: your return moves with the RTP of the title you play.
All offers
8| # | Site | Bonus & terms | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 | Duel Our pick | 50% of house edge No wagering | None | - | ~+$175per $10,000 staked | No requirement | |
| 02 |  Gamdom Rakeback | 15% of house edge No wagering | None | - | ~+$60per $10,000 staked | No requirement | |
| 03 |  Rainbet Deposit match | 100% to $700 40× deposit + bonusMax bet $14 | $56K | 82% | +$17on a $700 deposit | Break-even | |
| 04 |  Stake Rakeback | 3.5% of house edge No wagering | None | - | ~+$14per $10,000 staked | No requirement | |
| 05 |  BetFury Deposit match | 150% to $2,500 40× bonus onlyCap $3,000Max bet $10 | $100K | 57% | -$82on a $1,667 deposit | Mild loss | |
| 06 | Rainbet Deposit match | 100% to $700 500× bonus only | $350K | 98% | -$558on a $700 deposit | Avoid | |
| 07 |  BC.Game Deposit match | 360% match, no stated cap No wagering | - | - | - | Not priceable | |
| 08 | Rainbet Free spins | 20 spins @ $0.20 40× spin winningsMax bet $14 | - | - | - | Not priceable |
- 50% of house edgeNo wagering
- Must bet
- None
- Bust risk
- -
- You get
- ~+$175
per $10,000 staked
- 15% of house edgeNo wagering
- Must bet
- None
- Bust risk
- -
- You get
- ~+$60
per $10,000 staked
- 100% to $70040× deposit + bonusMax bet $14
- Must bet
- $56K
- Bust risk
- 82%
- You get
- +$17
on a $700 deposit
- 3.5% of house edgeNo wagering
- Must bet
- None
- Bust risk
- -
- You get
- ~+$14
per $10,000 staked
- 150% to $2,50040× bonus onlyCap $3,000Max bet $10
- Must bet
- $100K
- Bust risk
- 57%
- You get
- -$82
on a $1,667 deposit
- 100% to $700500× bonus only
- Must bet
- $350K
- Bust risk
- 98%
- You get
- -$558
on a $700 deposit
- 360% match, no stated capNo wagering
- Must bet
- -
- Bust risk
- -
- You get
- -
The bonus releases incrementally as bets settle, but the release rate per unit of turnover is not published in the terms we have. Without it the turnover needed to unlock the bonus cannot be derived, and a headline 360% match cannot be honestly priced. We will not substitute a guessed rate.
- 20 spins @ $0.2040× spin winningsMax bet $14
- Must bet
- -
- Bust risk
- -
- You get
- -
Wagering applies to spin winnings, so the turnover base is not knowable from the terms alone. A single EV figure would be invented.
- Verdict
- Keeps value≥ 10%
- Break-even≥ 0%
- Mild loss≥ -10%
- Costly≥ -25%
- Avoidbelow -25%
- of deposit
How to read “You get”. Every figure is money, and every row says what it is measured on. A deposit bonus pays once, so its figure is net value on the deposit that maximises it. Rakeback pays on everything you stake and has no bonus to clear, so its figure is the return per $10,000 staked. Rakeback is marked ~ because the return depends on the house edge of the game you actually play. All outbound links on this page are affiliate links.
Terms change without notice. Every offer here was last checked against the operator’s own terms on 6 Aug 2026, and we re-check monthly. Figures may lag a change made since - always confirm the current terms on the operator’s site before depositing.
The multiplier is rarely the binding term
Subtracting expected loss from a bonus makes most offers look catastrophic, but that assumes the requirement gets completed. Often it cannot be: the balance runs out first, and busting caps the loss at the deposit while the bonus absorbs the rest.
So the terms that decide an offer are the two that are never advertised - the cashout cap, which removes the upper tail, and the maximum bet, which forces the turnover to be ground out rather than gambled through. Both appear in the table above.